Pontardawe Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Parc Ynysderw, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Pontardawe Town the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Trethomas Bluebirds. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontardawe Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Pontardawe Town (1,469) and Trethomas Bluebirds (1,512).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontardawe Town have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Trethomas Bluebirds have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 0-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Pontardawe Town score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Trethomas Bluebirds score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontardawe Town | 1.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontardawe Town sit 13th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Trethomas Bluebirds sit 14th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 14 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontardawe Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
- The Footlab model makes Pontardawe Town the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Trethomas Bluebirds.
- Where and when is Pontardawe Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds played?
- Pontardawe Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Parc Ynysderw, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.