Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major
The Footlab model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 43%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Llantwit Major (1,483) and Cardiff Draconians (1,547).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Cardiff Draconians have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Llantwit Major win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Cardiff Draconians win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2025 | Cardiff Draconians 2-0 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Llantwit Major 0-2 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff Draconians vs Llantwit Major on Dec 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llantwit Major | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llantwit Major sit 16th in FAW Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and Cardiff Draconians sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 43%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Llantwit Major.
- Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians played?
- Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.