Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 17Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 54%, against 20% for a draw and 26% for Carmarthen Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
On Elo ratings, Caerau (Ely) has 1,741 points and Carmarthen Town 1,650.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Carmarthen Town
Not enough data to predict the Carmarthen Town lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Caerau (Ely) wins, 3 draws, 3 Carmarthen Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Carmarthen Town 4-3 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 3-4 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 1-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 2-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 2-2 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 1-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Carmarthen Town | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 7th (15 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 21 | 15 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 54%, against 20% for a draw and 26% for Carmarthen Town.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 4, 2026Pontypridd TownvsBaglan Dragons
- Dec 4, 2026Caerphilly AthleticvsSwansea University
- Dec 4, 2026Newport CityvsCardiff Draconians
- Dec 5, 2026Llantwit MajorvsAberystwyth Town
- Dec 5, 2026Pontardawe TownvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Dec 5, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsAfan Lido
- Dec 5, 2026Treowen Starsvsllanelli AFC