Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town played?

Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 17Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd

Caerau (Ely)

Carmarthen Town

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 51%, against 20% for a draw and 29% for Carmarthen Town. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?

A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Caerau (Ely) (1,654) and Carmarthen Town (1,614).

Caerau (Ely) win51 %

Draw20 %

Carmarthen Town win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

Carmarthen Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Treowen Stars(home)	2-4	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Afan Lido(home)	3-1	FAW Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Newport City(away)	2-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Caerau (Ely)(home)	4-3	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Treowen Stars(away)	1-4	FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Caerau (Ely) win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Carmarthen Town win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town 4-3 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Feb 21, 2026	Caerau (Ely) 3-4 Carmarthen Town	FAW Championship
Nov 28, 2025	Carmarthen Town 1-1 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Jan 25, 2025	Carmarthen Town 2-0 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Aug 6, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 2-2 Carmarthen Town	FAW Championship
Feb 10, 2024	Carmarthen Town 1-1 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) on Aug 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15
Carmarthen Town	2.5	2.0	3	10/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Caerau (Ely) sit 11th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Carmarthen Town	4	3	0	1	11	9	9
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 51%, against 20% for a draw and 29% for Carmarthen Town.
Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town played?: Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.