Ponte da Barca vs Bragança: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 17Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal Ponte da Barca, Ponte da Barca
The Footlab model makes Ponte da Barca the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Bragança. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponte da Barca vs Bragança?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Ponte da Barca (1,786) and Bragança (1,879).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, Ponte da Barca have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Bragança have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maia Lidador(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vila Meã(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Merelinense(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Estarreja(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Montalegre(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | SC Braga B(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brito(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| May 31, 2026 | Leça(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 23, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Rebordosa(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
How many goals should we expect?
Ponte da Barca score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 5; Bragança score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte da Barca | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3 | 2/5 | 2/5 |
| Bragança | 1.4 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponte da Barca sit 8th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (3 points from 2 matches) and Bragança sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bragança | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Ponte da Barca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponte da Barca vs Bragança?
- The Footlab model makes Ponte da Barca the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Bragança.
- Where and when is Ponte da Barca vs Bragança played?
- Ponte da Barca vs Bragança is played on February 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal Ponte da Barca, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.