Port Vale vs Swindon Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 30Kick-off on February 9, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Swindon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Port Vale vs Swindon Town?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Port Vale (1,786) and Swindon Town (1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Port Vale have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Swindon Town have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Port Vale win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Swindon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | Swindon Town 3-3 Port Vale | League Two |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Port Vale 2-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
| May 19, 2022 | Port Vale 1-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| May 15, 2022 | Swindon Town 2-1 Port Vale | League Two |
| Jan 15, 2022 | Port Vale 1-3 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Sep 11, 2021 | Swindon Town 1-2 Port Vale | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Swindon Town vs Port Vale on Feb 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Port Vale sit 20th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Swindon Town sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Port Vale vs Swindon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Swindon Town.
- Where and when is Port Vale vs Swindon Town played?
- Port Vale vs Swindon Town is played on February 9, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Vale Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.