Amarante vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Amarante, Amarante
The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Amarante. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tondela wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Amarante vs Tondela?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Amarante (2,063) and Tondela (2,056).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Amarante vs Tondela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Amarante
3-4-3- 5Joao Ricardo
- 88Rúben Alves
- 10M. Costa
- 26A. Zangre
- 8Tokinho
- 78Simão Silva
- 6Rodrigo Guedes
- 2Gonçalo Cunha
- 3Feliciano Mendes
- 28Diogo Costa
- 65Didi
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 15Carraça
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 09:57 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Amarante have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Tondela have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 1-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Amarante wins, 0 draws, 1 Tondela win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tondela 2-1 Amarante | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Amarante score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amarante | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Tondela | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Amarante sit 16th in Segunda Liga (5 points from 7 matches) and Tondela sit 7th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Amarante vs Tondela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Amarante vs Tondela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Amarante.
- Where and when is Amarante vs Tondela played?
- Amarante vs Tondela is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Amarante, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.