Portugalete vs Arosa: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Florida, Portugalete
The Footlab model makes Portugalete the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Arosa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portugalete vs Arosa?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Portugalete (1,942) and Arosa (1,904).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portugalete have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Arosa have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontevedra(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Celtiga(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 2, 2026 | Cambados(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Boiro(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Barco(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Portugalete score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Arosa score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugalete | 1.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Arosa | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portugalete vs Arosa?
- The Footlab model makes Portugalete the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Arosa.
- Where and when is Portugalete vs Arosa played?
- Portugalete vs Arosa is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Florida, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.