Amorebieta vs Gimnástica Torrelavega: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal de Urritxe, Amorebieta-Echano
The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Amorebieta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Amorebieta vs Gimnástica Torrelavega?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Amorebieta (1,895) and Gimnástica Torrelavega (1,973).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Amorebieta have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Gimnástica Torrelavega have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Athletic Club II(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Mutilvera(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Real Unión(away) | 3-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Gernika(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Basconia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Amorebieta score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnástica Torrelavega score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amorebieta | 1.2 | 0.8 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Gimnástica Torrelavega | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Amorebieta vs Gimnástica Torrelavega?
- The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Amorebieta.
- Where and when is Amorebieta vs Gimnástica Torrelavega played?
- Amorebieta vs Gimnástica Torrelavega is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal de Urritxe, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.