Prato vs Progresso: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Lungobisenzio, Prato
The Footlab AI model makes Prato the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Prato vs Progresso?
Prato starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (1,759 vs 1,553).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Prato vs Progresso
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Prato
Not enough data to predict the Prato lineup.
Progresso
Not enough data to predict the Progresso lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Prato have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat; Progresso have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(away) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sasso Marconi Zola(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lucchese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Prato wins, 2 draws, 2 Progresso wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Prato 0-2 Progresso | Serie D - Girone D |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Progresso 0-0 Prato | Serie D - Girone D |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Prato 1-0 Progresso | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Progresso 0-3 Prato | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 14, 2022 | Prato 1-1 Progresso | Serie D - Girone D |
| Dec 4, 2021 | Progresso 3-1 Prato | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Prato score 1.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prato | 1.7 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Prato sit 2nd in Serie D - Girone E (14 points from 6 matches) and Progresso sit 16th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Prato | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 16 | Progresso | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
A question about Prato vs Progresso?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Prato vs Progresso?
- The Footlab AI model makes Prato the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Progresso.
- Where and when is Prato vs Progresso played?
- Prato vs Progresso is played on May 2, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Lungobisenzio, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- May 2, 2027GavorranovsRobur Siena
- May 2, 2027MezzolaravsMontevarchi Calcio
- May 2, 2027Sasso Marconi ZolavsGhivizzano Borgo Mozzano
- May 2, 2027FlaminiavsRondinella
- May 2, 2027San Donato TavarnellevsGrassina
- May 2, 2027ScandiccivsLucchese
- May 2, 2027Tau AltopasciovsSeravezza
- May 2, 2027Terranuova TraianavsTernana