Praviano vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santa Catalina, Pravia
The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Praviano. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Praviano vs Covadonga?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (1,935 vs 1,713).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Praviano vs Covadonga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Praviano
Not enough data to predict the Praviano lineup.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Praviano have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 5-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Avilés Stadium(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lealtad(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Praviano wins, 1 draw, 5 Covadonga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Praviano 1-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Covadonga 2-1 Praviano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Covadonga 1-0 Praviano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Praviano 0-5 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Praviano 2-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | Covadonga 2-0 Praviano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Praviano vs Covadonga on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Praviano score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Praviano | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Praviano sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (5 points from 6 matches) and Covadonga sit 1st (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Praviano | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 5 |
A question about Praviano vs Covadonga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Praviano vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Praviano.
- Where and when is Praviano vs Covadonga played?
- Praviano vs Covadonga is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santa Catalina, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.