Siero vs San Martín: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Bayu, Pola de Siero
The Footlab model makes San Martín the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Siero. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Siero vs San Martín?
San Martín starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,725 vs 1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Siero have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; San Martín have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ceares(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tuilla(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Navarro(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | L'Entregu(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Siero win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 San Martín win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Siero 1-2 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | San Martín 5-2 Siero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 7, 2021 | Siero 0-1 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 20, 2020 | San Martín 2-0 Siero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 19, 2020 | Siero 1-1 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 1, 2019 | San Martín 1-1 Siero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Siero score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; San Martín score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siero | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| San Martín | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Siero sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (42 points from 34 matches) and San Martín sit 6th (51 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | San Martín | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 51 |
| 10 | Siero | 34 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 49 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Siero vs San Martín?
- The Footlab model makes San Martín the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Siero.
- Where and when is Siero vs San Martín played?
- Siero vs San Martín is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Bayu, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.