Preston Lions vs South Melbourne: prediction and stats
Australia CupQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)B.T. Connor Reserve, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Preston Lions the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for South Melbourne. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Preston Lions vs South Melbourne?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Preston Lions (1,961) and South Melbourne (1,880).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Preston Lions have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; South Melbourne have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dandenong City(away) | 0-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Melbourne City II(home) | 4-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dandenong Thunder(home) | 3-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Brunswick Juventus FC(away) | 4-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Green Gully(home) | 2-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Heidelberg United(home) | 1-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Melbourne City II(away) | 3-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fremantle City(home) | 3-3 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St. Albans Saints(home) | 2-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 2-1 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Preston Lions win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 South Melbourne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | South Melbourne 0-0 Preston Lions | Victoria NPL |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Preston Lions 0-3 South Melbourne | Victoria NPL |
| Jun 15, 2025 | South Melbourne 2-1 Preston Lions | Victoria NPL |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Preston Lions 2-0 South Melbourne | Victoria NPL |
Last archived meeting: South Melbourne vs Preston Lions on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Preston Lions score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; South Melbourne score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Lions | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| South Melbourne | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Preston Lions vs South Melbourne?
- The Footlab model makes Preston Lions the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for South Melbourne.
- Where and when is Preston Lions vs South Melbourne played?
- Preston Lions vs South Melbourne is played on August 26, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at B.T. Connor Reserve, in the Australia Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.