Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne: prediction and stats
Victoria NPLRegular Season - 26Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes South Melbourne the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Sunshine Georgies. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Sunshine Georgies (1,843) and South Melbourne (1,880).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sunshine Georgies have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; South Melbourne have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hume City(away) | 2-3 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avondale(home) | 3-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Altona Magic(away) | 1-1 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heidelberg United(away) | 0-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Melbourne City II(home) | 1-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Heidelberg United(home) | 1-2 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Melbourne City II(away) | 3-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fremantle City(home) | 3-3 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St. Albans Saints(home) | 2-0 | Victoria NPL |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 2-1 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Sunshine Georgies win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 South Melbourne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | South Melbourne 0-4 Sunshine Georgies | Victoria NPL |
Last archived meeting: South Melbourne vs Sunshine Georgies on May 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sunshine Georgies score 1.6 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; South Melbourne score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunshine Georgies | 1.6 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| South Melbourne | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sunshine Georgies sit 7th in Victoria NPL (35 points from 25 matches) and South Melbourne sit 5th (41 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | South Melbourne | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 35 | 41 |
| 7 | Sunshine Georgies | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 34 | 34 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne?
- The Footlab model makes South Melbourne the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Sunshine Georgies.
- Where and when is Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne played?
- Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1, in the Victoria NPL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.