Pro Patria vs Pistoiese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Speroni, Busto Arsizio
The Footlab model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Pro Patria. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?
Pistoiese is a heavy favourite: 1,903 Elo points against 1,589 — a 314-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pro Patria have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Pistoiese have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Renate(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arzignano Valchiampo(home) | 2-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Dolomiti Bellunesi(away) | 4-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Piacenza(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| May 3, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Desenzano Calvina(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Coriano(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Pro Patria win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Pistoiese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2021 | Pistoiese 1-2 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2020 | Pro Patria 0-0 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
| Nov 24, 2019 | Pro Patria 1-1 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
| Dec 30, 2018 | Pistoiese 3-1 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 16, 2018 | Pro Patria 2-1 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Pistoiese vs Pro Patria on Feb 7, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Pro Patria score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pistoiese score 1.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Patria | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Pistoiese | 1.9 | 0.6 | 9 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pistoiese | 33 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 68 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?
- The Footlab model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Pro Patria.
- Where and when is Pro Patria vs Pistoiese played?
- Pro Patria vs Pistoiese is played on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Speroni, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.