Pro Patria vs Pistoiese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Speroni, Busto Arsizio
The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Pro Patria. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pistoiese wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,849 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?
Pistoiese starts as the favourite with a 249-point Elo edge (1,954 vs 1,704).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pro Patria vs Pistoiese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pro Patria
4-3-3- 10F. Mastroianni
- 25D. Ferri
- 70J. Desogus
- 17G. Tunjov
- 23J. Frosali
- 27L. Giudici
- 6A. Sassaro
- 39M. Motolese
- 20C. Mora
- 31G. Felicioli
- 28A. Sala
Pistoiese
Not enough data to predict the Pistoiese lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 03:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pro Patria have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Pistoiese have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 5-2 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Varesina(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Solbiatese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pavia(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sestri Levante(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Pro Patria wins, 2 draws, 1 Pistoiese win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2021 | Pistoiese 1-2 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2020 | Pro Patria 0-0 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
| Nov 24, 2019 | Pro Patria 1-1 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
| Dec 30, 2018 | Pistoiese 3-1 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 16, 2018 | Pro Patria 2-1 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Pistoiese vs Pro Patria on Feb 7, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Pro Patria score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pistoiese score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Patria | 2.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Pistoiese | 1.7 | 0.5 | 10 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pro Patria sit 2nd in Serie D - Girone D (19 points from 8 matches) and Pistoiese sit 1st (24 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 19 |
A question about Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pro Patria vs Pistoiese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Pro Patria.
- Where and when is Pro Patria vs Pistoiese played?
- Pro Patria vs Pistoiese is played on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Speroni, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.