Pro Patria vs Varesina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 23Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Speroni, Busto Arsizio
The Footlab model makes Varesina the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Pro Patria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pro Patria vs Varesina?
Varesina starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,722 vs 1,589).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pro Patria have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Varesina have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Renate(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arzignano Valchiampo(home) | 2-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Dolomiti Bellunesi(away) | 4-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Caldiero Terme(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Breno(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milan II(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Chievo(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Pro Patria win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Varesina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2023 | Varesina 0-2 Pro Patria | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Varesina vs Pro Patria on Aug 5, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Pro Patria score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Varesina score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Patria | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Varesina | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pro Patria vs Varesina?
- The Footlab model makes Varesina the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Pro Patria.
- Where and when is Pro Patria vs Varesina played?
- Pro Patria vs Varesina is played on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Speroni, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.