Progresso vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Progresso, Castel Maggiore
The Footlab model makes Progresso the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progresso vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Progresso (1,681) and Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano (1,637).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresso have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sasso Marconi Zola(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Lentigione(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Tuttocuoio(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Progresso win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | Progresso 1-1 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 20, 2021 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 1-1 Progresso | Serie D - Girone D |
Last archived meeting: Progresso vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano on Apr 20, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 44 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progresso vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano?
- The Footlab model makes Progresso the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano.
- Where and when is Progresso vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano played?
- Progresso vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano is played on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.