Where and when is Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal played?

Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal is played on August 29, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC), in the Torneo Promocional Amateur.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal: prediction and stats

Torneo Promocional AmateurRegular Season - 14Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)

Provincial

Juventud de Bernal

The Footlab model makes Provincial the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Juventud de Bernal. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal?

A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Provincial (1,547) and Juventud de Bernal (1,453).

Provincial win43 %

Draw28 %

Juventud de Bernal win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Provincial have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Juventud de Bernal have 1, 1 and 13.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Provincial
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Defensores Glew(home)	0-4	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 16, 2026	Atletico Pilar(away)	0-1	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 10, 2026	Estrella de Berisso(away)	0-5	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 5, 2026	Deportivo Metalurgico(home)	0-5	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Jul 25, 2026	SAT Moreno(away)	0-3	Torneo Promocional Amateur

Juventud de Bernal
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Deportivo Metalurgico(away)	0-7	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 19, 2026	SAT Moreno(home)	0-3	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 11, 2026	Atletico Pilar(home)	2-2	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 1, 2026	Nautico Hacoaj(away)	0-2	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Jul 28, 2026	Defensores Glew(home)	0-5	Torneo Promocional Amateur

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Provincial win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Juventud de Bernal win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 11, 2026	Juventud de Bernal 0-4 Provincial	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Sep 8, 2025	Provincial 1-1 Juventud de Bernal	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 17, 2025	Juventud de Bernal 2-1 Provincial	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Sep 3, 2024	Provincial 1-0 Juventud de Bernal	Torneo Promocional Amateur
Apr 9, 2024	Juventud de Bernal 2-2 Provincial	Torneo Promocional Amateur

Last archived meeting: Juventud de Bernal vs Provincial on Jul 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Provincial score 0.5 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Juventud de Bernal score 0.4 and concede 2.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Provincial	0.5	2.4	3	2/15	8/15
Juventud de Bernal	0.4	2.9	0	4/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Provincial sit 16th in Torneo Promocional Amateur (7 points from 12 matches) and Juventud de Bernal sit 17th (4 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Provincial	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
8	Juventud de Bernal	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
16	Provincial	12	2	1	9	7	27	7
17	Juventud de Bernal	12	1	1	10	6	38	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal?: The Footlab model makes Provincial the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Juventud de Bernal.
Where and when is Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal played?: Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal is played on August 29, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC), in the Torneo Promocional Amateur.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.