Qizilqum vs Nasaf: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi, Navoiy
The Footlab model makes Nasaf the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Qizilqum. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Qizilqum vs Nasaf?
Nasaf starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (1,740 vs 1,580).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Qizilqum have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Nasaf have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Sogdiana(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mash'al(home) | 2-0 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Neftchi(away) | 0-5 | Super League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Nasaf(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kokand-1912(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Olmaliq(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Qizilqum(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Qizilqum win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Nasaf win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Nasaf 1-0 Qizilqum | Super League |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Qizilqum 0-1 Nasaf | Super League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Nasaf 4-0 Qizilqum | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Qizilqum 0-1 Nasaf | Super League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Nasaf 2-1 Qizilqum | Super League |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Nasaf 0-0 Qizilqum | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Qizilqum score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nasaf score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qizilqum | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Nasaf | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Qizilqum sit 11th in Super League (13 points from 11 matches) and Nasaf sit 9th (14 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nasaf | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 25 |
| 9 | Nasaf | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 11 | Qizilqum | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Qizilqum | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 26 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Qizilqum vs Nasaf?
- The Footlab model makes Nasaf the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Qizilqum.
- Where and when is Qizilqum vs Nasaf played?
- Qizilqum vs Nasaf is played on August 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.