Surkhon vs Olmaliq: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Markaziy Stadion, Termiz
The Footlab model makes Olmaliq the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Surkhon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Surkhon vs Olmaliq?
Olmaliq starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,721 vs 1,610).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Surkhon have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Olmaliq have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pakhtakor(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Navbahor(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kokand-1912(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Xorazm(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bunyodkor(away) | 3-2 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Nasaf(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mash'al(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Surkhon win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Olmaliq win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Olmaliq 1-1 Surkhon | Super League |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Surkhon 0-0 Olmaliq | Super League |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Olmaliq 0-1 Surkhon | Super League |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Olmaliq 1-0 Surkhon | Super League |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Surkhon 2-1 Olmaliq | Super League |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Olmaliq 2-3 Surkhon | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Surkhon score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Olmaliq score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surkhon | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Olmaliq | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Surkhon sit 12th in Super League (12 points from 11 matches) and Olmaliq sit 8th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Olmaliq | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 28 |
| 8 | Olmaliq | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| 14 | Surkhon | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Surkhon vs Olmaliq?
- The Footlab model makes Olmaliq the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Surkhon.
- Where and when is Surkhon vs Olmaliq played?
- Surkhon vs Olmaliq is played on August 25, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Markaziy Stadion, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.