Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rayo Vallecano wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
On Elo ratings, Rayo Vallecano has 2,037 points and Elche 1,979.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Elche
4-3-3- 11Germán Valera
- 14Fer Niño
- 21L. Cepeda
- 12Gonzalo Villar
- 47J. Morcillo
- 20Tete Morente
- 23Víctor Chust
- 2Buba Sangaré
- 5F. Redondo
- 3R. Revivo
- 1M. Dituro
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Elche have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-3 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Rayo Vallecano wins, 0 draws, 3 Elche wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Elche 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 29, 2023 | Elche 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Oct 3, 2022 | Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Feb 18, 2022 | Elche 2-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Elche score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Elche | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 12th in La Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Elche sit 18th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 5 |
A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Elche.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.