Barcelona vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Real Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barcelona wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
On Elo ratings, Barcelona has 2,358 points and Real Madrid 2,278.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barcelona
4-3-3- 10Lamine Yamal
- 17A. Gordon
- 14K. Adeyemi
- 8Pedri
- 16Rodri
- 7Fermín
- 24Eric García
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 15A. Christensen
- 2João Cancelo
- 1Joan García
Known absences
RaphinhaOut · Hamstring injury
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 7Vinícius Júnior
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 15A. Güler
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 16I. Konaté
- 4D. Huijsen
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 06:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Real Madrid have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 7-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Levante(away) | 4-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 5-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Barcelona wins, 0 draws, 1 Real Madrid win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Barcelona 2-0 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid | Super Cup |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| May 11, 2025 | Barcelona 4-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-5 Barcelona | Super Cup |
Last archived meeting: Barcelona vs Real Madrid on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barcelona score 3.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barcelona sit 1st in La Liga (21 points from 7 matches) and Real Madrid sit 4th (15 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 15 |
A question about Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Real Madrid.
- Where and when is Barcelona vs Real Madrid played?
- Barcelona vs Real Madrid is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.