Barcelona vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Real Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Barcelona (2,383) and Real Madrid (2,340).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 11 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Real Madrid have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Elche(away) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Barcelona win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Real Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Barcelona 2-0 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid | Super Cup |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| May 11, 2025 | Barcelona 4-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-5 Barcelona | Super Cup |
Last archived meeting: Barcelona vs Real Madrid on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barcelona sit 4th in La Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Real Madrid sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Real Madrid.
- Where and when is Barcelona vs Real Madrid played?
- Barcelona vs Real Madrid is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.