Valencia vs Villarreal: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Valencia (2,099) and Villarreal (2,172).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Villarreal have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valencia win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Villarreal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Villarreal 2-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Valencia 0-2 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Villarreal 1-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Valencia 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Villarreal 1-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 2, 2024 | Valencia 3-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Villarreal vs Valencia on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Villarreal | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 11th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Villarreal sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Villarreal?
- The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Villarreal played?
- Valencia vs Villarreal is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.