Alaves vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alaves wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Malaga?
On Elo ratings, Alaves has 2,016 points and Malaga 1,964.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Malaga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
5-3-2- 15L. Boyé
- 9M. Díaz
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 16V. Koski
- 21A. Rebbach
- 17Jonny
- 7Angel Pérez
- 1Sivera
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 8Carlos Dotor
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 23Izan Merino
- 15Ángel Recio
- 12José Salinas
- 31Rafita
- 4Einar Galilea
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Malaga have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 0-4 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Alaves wins, 1 draw, 1 Malaga win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2023 | Alaves 2-1 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Dec 18, 2022 | Malaga 1-0 Alaves | Segunda División |
| May 6, 2018 | Malaga 0-3 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2017 | Alaves 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Mar 11, 2017 | Malaga 1-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 16, 2016 | Alaves 1-1 Malaga | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 6th in La Liga (11 points from 7 matches) and Malaga sit 20th (3 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
A question about Alaves vs Malaga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Malaga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Malaga played?
- Alaves vs Malaga is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.