Alaves vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Malaga?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Alaves (2,075) and Malaga (2,055).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Malaga have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Ittihad FC(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Alaves win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Malaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2023 | Alaves 2-1 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Dec 18, 2022 | Malaga 1-0 Alaves | Segunda División |
| May 6, 2018 | Malaga 0-3 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2017 | Alaves 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Mar 11, 2017 | Malaga 1-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 16, 2016 | Alaves 1-1 Malaga | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Malaga | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 2nd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Malaga sit 19th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Malaga?
- The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Malaga played?
- Alaves vs Malaga is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.