Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Deportivo La Coruna. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (2,246 vs 2,056).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Deportivo La Coruna have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Elche(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC St. Pauli(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Atletico Madrid win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Deportivo La Coruna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Apr 1, 2018 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| Nov 4, 2017 | Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 2, 2017 | Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| Mar 12, 2016 | Atletico Madrid 3-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo La Coruna vs Atletico Madrid on Jan 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo La Coruna score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Deportivo La Coruna sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Deportivo La Coruna.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.