Where and when is Real Ávila vs Numancia played?

Real Ávila vs Numancia is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Real Ávila vs Numancia: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez, Ávila

Real Ávila

Numancia

The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Real Ávila. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Ávila vs Numancia?

A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Real Ávila (1,889) and Numancia (1,941).

Real Ávila win34 %

Draw27 %

Numancia win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Ávila have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Numancia have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Ávila
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 12, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Unionistas de Salamanca(home)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	0-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Racing Santander II(away)	1-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 19, 2026	Gimnástica Segoviana(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Numancia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Zaragoza(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Poblense(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Poblense(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Marino de Luanco(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Langreo(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Real Ávila win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Numancia win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 12, 2026	Numancia 2-1 Real Ávila	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 9, 2025	Real Ávila 0-0 Numancia	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 13, 2025	Numancia 2-0 Real Ávila	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 30, 2024	Real Ávila 0-0 Numancia	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Numancia vs Real Ávila on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Real Ávila score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Numancia score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Real Ávila	1.6	1.7	5	9/15	11/15
Numancia	1.3	0.9	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Ávila vs Numancia?: The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Real Ávila.
Where and when is Real Ávila vs Numancia played?: Real Ávila vs Numancia is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.