Real Avilés vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, Avilés
The Footlab AI model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Avilés wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,373 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Avilés vs Mérida AD?
On Elo ratings, Real Avilés has 1,867 points and Mérida AD 1,860.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Avilés vs Mérida AD
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Avilés
4-3-3- 8B. Abelenda
- 14Berto Cayarga
- 19N. Poquet
- 7Cris Montes
- 9Álvaro Santamaría
- 5Samuel
- 20O. Carracedo
- 4Markel Artetxe
- 21Jon Sillero
- 15Eric Pérez
- 1Álvaro Ratón
Mérida AD
4-3-3- 21Raúl Beneit
- 19D. Sandoval
- 11S. El Ftouhi
- 6Jota
- 23Geovanny Almeida
- 8Martín Solar
- 2Alejandro Agustín
- 4Gonzalez Nacho
- 16Fito
- 5Hugo Sanz
- 1A. Csenterics
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Avilés have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Mérida AD have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Lugo(home) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Barakaldo(away) | 3-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | CD Coria(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(home) | 3-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 3-5 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 3-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Real Avilés wins, 0 draws, 2 Mérida AD wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Real Avilés 1-2 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Mérida AD 2-1 Real Avilés | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Real Avilés vs Mérida AD on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Avilés score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Avilés | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Mérida AD | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Avilés sit 13th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (8 points from 7 matches) and Mérida AD sit 12th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
A question about Real Avilés vs Mérida AD?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Avilés vs Mérida AD?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Mérida AD.
- Where and when is Real Avilés vs Mérida AD played?
- Real Avilés vs Mérida AD is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.