Real Murcia II vs Lorca Deportiva: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campus Universitario, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Real Murcia II the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Lorca Deportiva. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Murcia II vs Lorca Deportiva?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Real Murcia II (1,834) and Lorca Deportiva (1,860).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Murcia II have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Lorca Deportiva have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Pamplona(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Pamplona(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 31, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yeclano(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Xerez(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Real Murcia II win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Lorca Deportiva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | Lorca Deportiva 2-1 Real Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Real Murcia II 1-2 Lorca Deportiva | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 26, 2024 | Real Murcia II 3-2 Lorca Deportiva | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 18, 2024 | Lorca Deportiva 0-1 Real Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Lorca Deportiva 1-2 Real Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Real Murcia II 1-3 Lorca Deportiva | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Lorca Deportiva vs Real Murcia II on Feb 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Real Murcia II score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lorca Deportiva score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Murcia II | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Lorca Deportiva | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Murcia II vs Lorca Deportiva?
- The Footlab model makes Real Murcia II the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Lorca Deportiva.
- Where and when is Real Murcia II vs Lorca Deportiva played?
- Real Murcia II vs Lorca Deportiva is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campus Universitario, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.