Poblense vs Peña Deportiva: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla, Sa Pobla (Mallorca
The Footlab model makes Poblense the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Peña Deportiva. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Poblense (1,985) and Peña Deportiva (1,927).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Poblense have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Peña Deportiva have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atlético Baleares(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | Águilas(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2026 | Numancia(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Numancia(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ibiza(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Manacor(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 30, 2026 | Manacor(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
How many goals should we expect?
Poblense score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Peña Deportiva score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poblense | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Peña Deportiva | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Poblense | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 41 | 28 | 59 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
- The Footlab model makes Poblense the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Peña Deportiva.
- Where and when is Poblense vs Peña Deportiva played?
- Poblense vs Peña Deportiva is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.