Real Sociedad III vs Leioa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 28Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo José Luis Orbegozo, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Leioa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Sociedad III wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,204 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad III vs Leioa?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Real Sociedad III (1,787) and Leioa (1,847).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Sociedad III vs Leioa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Sociedad III
Not enough data to predict the Real Sociedad III lineup.
Leioa
Not enough data to predict the Leioa lineup.
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 10:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad III have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Leioa have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Amurrio Club(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Touring(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Erandio(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sodupe(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Real Sociedad III wins, 0 draws, 2 Leioa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Leioa 2-1 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Real Sociedad III 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Leioa vs Real Sociedad III on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad III score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leioa score 2.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad III | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Leioa | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad III sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (18 points from 10 matches) and Leioa sit 1st (22 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leioa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Sociedad III | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 13 | 18 |
A question about Real Sociedad III vs Leioa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad III vs Leioa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Leioa.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad III vs Leioa played?
- Real Sociedad III vs Leioa is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo José Luis Orbegozo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.