Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo José Luis Orbegozo, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE?
Real Sociedad III starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,798 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad III have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Pasaia KE have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Durango(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Añorga(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Real Sociedad III win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Pasaia KE win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Real Sociedad III 2-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Pasaia KE 0-1 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 15, 2021 | Pasaia KE 0-5 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2021 | Real Sociedad III 1-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 1, 2020 | Real Sociedad III 1-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 14, 2019 | Pasaia KE 2-1 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad III score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Pasaia KE score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad III | 1.7 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Pasaia KE | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad III sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (55 points from 34 matches) and Pasaia KE sit 14th (36 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Sociedad III | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 39 | 55 |
| 14 | Pasaia KE | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 46 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE?
- The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE played?
- Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo José Luis Orbegozo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.