Aretxabaleta vs Durango: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Durango. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aretxabaleta wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Durango?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Aretxabaleta (1,730) and Durango (1,746).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aretxabaleta vs Durango
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Durango
Not enough data to predict the Durango lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Durango have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Aretxabaleta wins, 3 draws, 2 Durango wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango 0-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Durango 1-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 1-1 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Durango 3-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 1-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Durango vs Aretxabaleta on Sep 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (11 points from 6 matches) and Durango sit 11th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 11 | Durango | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Aretxabaleta vs Durango?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs Durango?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Durango.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs Durango played?
- Aretxabaleta vs Durango is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.