Santurtzi vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Jorge, Santurtzi
The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Santurtzi. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derio wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santurtzi vs Derio?
Derio starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,782 vs 1,651).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Santurtzi vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Santurtzi
Not enough data to predict the Santurtzi lineup.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santurtzi have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | R. Union B(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Durango(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Santurtzi wins, 2 draws, 3 Derio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Derio 2-0 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Santurtzi 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Derio 3-0 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Derio 0-0 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Santurtzi 0-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Santurtzi score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santurtzi | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santurtzi sit 15th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (6 points from 6 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 15 | Santurtzi | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
A question about Santurtzi vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santurtzi vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Santurtzi.
- Where and when is Santurtzi vs Derio played?
- Santurtzi vs Derio is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Jorge, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.