Recanatese vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati
The Footlab AI model makes Recanatese the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1. If Recanatese wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,606 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Recanatese vs Fossombrone?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Recanatese (1,599) and Fossombrone (1,654).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Recanatese vs Fossombrone
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Recanatese
Not enough data to predict the Recanatese lineup.
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 02:18 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Recanatese have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Fossombrone have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Notaresco(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Maceratese(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Lanciano FC(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Montecchio Gallo(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lanciano FC(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Recanatese wins, 0 draws, 2 Fossombrone wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Recanatese 2-0 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Fossombrone 1-0 Recanatese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Fossombrone 4-1 Recanatese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Recanatese 2-0 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Recanatese vs Fossombrone on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Recanatese score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recanatese | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Fossombrone | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Recanatese sit 15th in Serie D - Girone F (6 points from 7 matches) and Fossombrone sit 10th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fossombrone | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| 15 | Recanatese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
A question about Recanatese vs Fossombrone?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Recanatese vs Fossombrone?
- The Footlab AI model makes Recanatese the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Recanatese vs Fossombrone played?
- Recanatese vs Fossombrone is played on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 15, 2026AnconavsLanciano FC
- Nov 15, 2026MaceratesevsReal Giulianova
- Nov 15, 2026Foligno CalciovsTermoli Calcio
- Nov 15, 2026NotarescovsSporting Trestina
- Nov 15, 2026AngelanavsL'Aquila
- Nov 15, 2026Montecchio GallovsVigor Senigallia
- Nov 15, 2026PietralungavsAtletico Ascoli
- Nov 15, 2026SantegidiesevsTeramo