Where and when is Recanatese vs Fossombrone played?

Recanatese vs Fossombrone is played on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, in the Serie D - Girone F.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Recanatese vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati

Recanatese

Fossombrone

The Footlab model makes Recanatese the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Recanatese vs Fossombrone?

A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Recanatese (1,622) and Fossombrone (1,673).

Recanatese win44 %

Draw29 %

Fossombrone win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Recanatese have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Fossombrone have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Recanatese
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 17, 2026	Victor San Marino(home)	4-1	Serie D - Girone F
May 3, 2026	Fossombrone(home)	2-0	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026	Teramo(away)	2-2	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026	Sora(home)	2-0	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 12, 2026	Maceratese(away)	1-2	Serie D - Girone F

Fossombrone
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Cesena(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Recanatese(away)	0-2	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026	Castelfidardo Calcio(home)	3-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026	Atletico Ascoli(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 12, 2026	Ancona(home)	1-2	Serie D - Girone F

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Recanatese win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Fossombrone win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Recanatese 2-0 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F
Dec 21, 2025	Fossombrone 1-0 Recanatese	Serie D - Girone F
Feb 23, 2025	Fossombrone 4-1 Recanatese	Serie D - Girone F
Oct 23, 2024	Recanatese 2-0 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F

Last archived meeting: Recanatese vs Fossombrone on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Recanatese score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Recanatese	1.3	1.6	3	10/15	8/15
Fossombrone	0.7	1.3	4	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Recanatese sit 15th in Serie D - Girone F (32 points from 34 matches) and Fossombrone sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Fossombrone	34	11	11	12	28	34	44
15	Recanatese	34	8	8	18	39	57	32

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Recanatese vs Fossombrone?: The Footlab model makes Recanatese the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Fossombrone.
Where and when is Recanatese vs Fossombrone played?: Recanatese vs Fossombrone is played on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, in the Serie D - Girone F.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.