Red Lions vs Karonga United: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)ZACC Ground, Zomba
The Footlab model makes Red Lions the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Karonga United. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Red Lions vs Karonga United?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Red Lions (1,405) and Karonga United (1,459).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Red Lions have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Karonga United have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Be Forward Wanderers(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moyale Barracks(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kamuzu Barracks(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | CIVO United(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Blue Eagles(away) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chitipa United(home) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nyasa Big Bullets(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mitundu Baptist(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Creck(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dedza Dynamos(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Red Lions win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Karonga United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Karonga United 1-0 Red Lions | Super League |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Karonga United 2-3 Red Lions | Super League |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Red Lions 2-1 Karonga United | Super League |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Karonga United 3-2 Red Lions | Super League |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Red Lions 1-1 Karonga United | Super League |
| Jul 10, 2021 | Red Lions 0-1 Karonga United | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Karonga United vs Red Lions on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Red Lions score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Karonga United score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Lions | 0.8 | 1.3 | 7 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Karonga United | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Red Lions sit 8th in Super League (19 points from 14 matches) and Karonga United sit 14th (13 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Red Lions | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Karonga United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| 8 | Red Lions | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 19 |
| 14 | Karonga United | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Red Lions vs Karonga United?
- The Footlab model makes Red Lions the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Karonga United.
- Where and when is Red Lions vs Karonga United played?
- Red Lions vs Karonga United is played on November 28, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at ZACC Ground, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.