Rhode Island vs Louisville City: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Centreville Bank Stadium, Pawtucket, Rhode Island
The Footlab model makes Rhode Island the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Louisville City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rhode Island vs Louisville City?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Rhode Island (1,791) and Louisville City (1,855).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rhode Island have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Louisville City have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colorado Springs(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Birmingham Legion(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Antonio(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 4-5 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rhode Island win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Louisville City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Louisville City 4-2 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Rhode Island 0-1 Louisville City | USL Championship |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Louisville City 2-1 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Louisville City 0-3 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| Jun 23, 2024 | Louisville City 2-5 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| May 25, 2024 | Rhode Island 0-0 Louisville City | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Louisville City vs Rhode Island on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rhode Island score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Louisville City score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Louisville City | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rhode Island sit 9th in USL Championship (15 points from 11 matches) and Louisville City sit 3rd (21 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Louisville City | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 31 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 22 | 28 |
| 9 | Rhode Island | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rhode Island vs Louisville City?
- The Footlab model makes Rhode Island the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Louisville City.
- Where and when is Rhode Island vs Louisville City played?
- Rhode Island vs Louisville City is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Centreville Bank Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots