Rio Ave vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 79%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Benfica?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,417 Elo points against 2,016, a 400-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rio Ave vs Benfica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 27Rafa
- 18L. Barreiro
- 10H. Sudakov
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 2C. Lenglet
- 24Samuel Soares
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rio Ave have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Benfica have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Rio Ave wins, 2 draws, 4 Benfica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Rio Ave 0-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Benfica 1-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Rio Ave 2-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Benfica 5-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| May 17, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Benfica 4-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Rio Ave score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Benfica | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rio Ave sit 14th in Primeira Liga (7 points from 8 matches) and Benfica sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
A question about Rio Ave vs Benfica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rio Ave vs Benfica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 79%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Rio Ave vs Benfica played?
- Rio Ave vs Benfica is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.