Arouca vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arouca wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Casa Pia?
Arouca starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (2,141 vs 2,015).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Casa Pia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 80L. Ofori
- 16Silvi
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 77B. Pauwels
- 18Geraldes
- 43David Sousa
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Casa Pia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arouca wins, 1 draw, 5 Casa Pia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Arouca 0-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Arouca 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Casa Pia 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Arouca 0-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (14 points from 8 matches) and Casa Pia sit 17th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Arouca vs Casa Pia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Casa Pia played?
- Arouca vs Casa Pia is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.