Arouca vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab model makes Arouca the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Casa Pia?
Arouca starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (2,063 vs 1,954).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Casa Pia have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arouca win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Casa Pia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Arouca 0-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Arouca 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Casa Pia 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Arouca 0-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (6 points from 3 matches) and Casa Pia sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab model makes Arouca the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Casa Pia played?
- Arouca vs Casa Pia is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.