Alverca vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for GIL Vicente. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alverca wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,974 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alverca vs GIL Vicente?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Alverca (2,076) and GIL Vicente (2,103).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alverca vs GIL Vicente
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 19D. Camara
- 10Chiquinho
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 35Rayan
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
- 6D. Gui
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
GIL Vicente
4-2-3-1- 99M. Kaba
- 86Diogo Ferreira Prioste
- 20Gil Pinto Martins
- 10Santi García
- 77Murilo
- 12A. Lausen
- 39Jonathan Buatu
- 45David Moreira
- 47Ricardo Esgaio
- 4M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 30Lucão
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 06:57 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alverca have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; GIL Vicente have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Alverca wins, 1 draw, 1 GIL Vicente win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-2 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Alverca 0-4 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Alverca on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alverca score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alverca sit 8th in Primeira Liga (11 points from 8 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 6th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
A question about Alverca vs GIL Vicente?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alverca vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for GIL Vicente.
- Where and when is Alverca vs GIL Vicente played?
- Alverca vs GIL Vicente is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.