River Plate vs Santa Fe: prediction and stats
CONMEBOL SudamericanaRound of 16Kick-off on August 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Mâs Monumental, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes River Plate the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Santa Fe. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win River Plate vs Santa Fe?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate River Plate (1,929) and Santa Fe (1,855).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, River Plate have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Santa Fe have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Argentinos JRS(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigre(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | River Plate(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chico(home) | 2-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Union Magdalena(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 2-2 | Primera A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Caracas FC(away) | 3-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 River Plate win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Santa Fe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Santa Fe 0-0 River Plate | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| May 20, 2021 | River Plate 2-1 Santa Fe | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| May 7, 2021 | Santa Fe 0-0 River Plate | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
Last archived meeting: Santa Fe vs River Plate on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
River Plate score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Fe score 1.7 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Santa Fe | 1.7 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | River Plate | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for River Plate vs Santa Fe?
- The Footlab model makes River Plate the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Santa Fe.
- Where and when is River Plate vs Santa Fe played?
- River Plate vs Santa Fe is played on August 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Mâs Monumental, in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.