Robur Siena vs Montevarchi Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Artemio Franchi - Montepaschi Arena, Siena
The Footlab model makes Robur Siena the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Montevarchi Calcio. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Robur Siena vs Montevarchi Calcio?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Robur Siena (1,754) and Montevarchi Calcio (1,693).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Robur Siena have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Montevarchi Calcio have 5, 9 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scandicci(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Prato(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| May 3, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(home) | 4-4 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Camaiore(away) | 5-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Figline(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Prato(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Robur Siena win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Montevarchi Calcio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Robur Siena 0-0 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Montevarchi Calcio 1-0 Robur Siena | Serie D - Girone E |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Montevarchi Calcio 1-2 Robur Siena | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Robur Siena 1-0 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie C - Girone B |
| Feb 6, 2022 | Robur Siena 2-0 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 28, 2021 | Montevarchi Calcio 0-3 Robur Siena | Serie C - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Robur Siena vs Montevarchi Calcio on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Robur Siena score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Montevarchi Calcio score 0.7 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robur Siena | 2.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Montevarchi Calcio | 0.7 | 0.3 | 10 | 4/15 | 0/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Robur Siena sit 4th in Serie D - Girone E (60 points from 34 matches) and Montevarchi Calcio sit 9th (46 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Robur Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57 | 35 | 60 |
| 9 | Montevarchi Calcio | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28 | 32 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Robur Siena vs Montevarchi Calcio?
- The Footlab model makes Robur Siena the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Montevarchi Calcio.
- Where and when is Robur Siena vs Montevarchi Calcio played?
- Robur Siena vs Montevarchi Calcio is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Artemio Franchi - Montepaschi Arena, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.