San Donato Tavarnelle vs Gavorrano: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Pianigiani, Tavarnelle Val di Pesa
The Footlab model makes San Donato Tavarnelle the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Gavorrano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Donato Tavarnelle vs Gavorrano?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate San Donato Tavarnelle (1,669) and Gavorrano (1,647).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Donato Tavarnelle have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Gavorrano have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sangiovannese(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Camaiore(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| May 3, 2026 | Tau Altopascio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Scandicci(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Orvietana Calcio(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 San Donato Tavarnelle win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Gavorrano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Gavorrano 1-1 San Donato Tavarnelle | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 12, 2025 | San Donato Tavarnelle 1-1 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Mar 30, 2025 | San Donato Tavarnelle 0-1 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Gavorrano 1-2 San Donato Tavarnelle | Serie D - Girone E |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Gavorrano 2-1 San Donato Tavarnelle | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 10, 2023 | San Donato Tavarnelle 0-0 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
Last archived meeting: Gavorrano vs San Donato Tavarnelle on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Donato Tavarnelle score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gavorrano score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Donato Tavarnelle | 1.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Gavorrano | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Donato Tavarnelle sit 12th in Serie D - Girone E (40 points from 34 matches) and Gavorrano sit 14th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30 | 35 | 40 |
| 14 | Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 49 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Gavorrano?
- The Footlab model makes San Donato Tavarnelle the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Gavorrano.
- Where and when is San Donato Tavarnelle vs Gavorrano played?
- San Donato Tavarnelle vs Gavorrano is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Pianigiani, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.