Montevarchi Calcio vs Gavorrano: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri, Montevarchi
The Footlab model makes Montevarchi Calcio the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Gavorrano. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montevarchi Calcio vs Gavorrano?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Montevarchi Calcio (1,693) and Gavorrano (1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montevarchi Calcio have 5 wins, 9 draws and 1 defeats; Gavorrano have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Figline(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Prato(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Camaiore(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| May 3, 2026 | Tau Altopascio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Scandicci(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Orvietana Calcio(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Montevarchi Calcio win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Gavorrano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Gavorrano 0-0 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Montevarchi Calcio 0-1 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Gavorrano 1-1 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Montevarchi Calcio 1-0 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Montevarchi Calcio 1-1 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Gavorrano 1-1 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
Last archived meeting: Gavorrano vs Montevarchi Calcio on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Montevarchi Calcio score 0.7 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gavorrano score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montevarchi Calcio | 0.7 | 0.3 | 10 | 4/15 | 0/15 |
| Gavorrano | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montevarchi Calcio sit 9th in Serie D - Girone E (46 points from 34 matches) and Gavorrano sit 14th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Montevarchi Calcio | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28 | 32 | 46 |
| 14 | Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 49 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montevarchi Calcio vs Gavorrano?
- The Footlab model makes Montevarchi Calcio the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Gavorrano.
- Where and when is Montevarchi Calcio vs Gavorrano played?
- Montevarchi Calcio vs Gavorrano is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.