Kaluga vs Mashuk-KMV: prediction and stats
Second League A - Division A GoldFall Season Gold - 13Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Arena Annenki, Kaluga
The Footlab model makes Mashuk-KMV the favourite at 35%, against 34% for a draw and 31% for Kaluga. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kaluga vs Mashuk-KMV?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Kaluga (1,725) and Mashuk-KMV (1,800).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kaluga have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Mashuk-KMV have 5, 9 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo Bryansk(home) | 0-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV(away) | 1-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Iskra Smolensk(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rodina Moskva II(home) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz(home) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kaluga(home) | 1-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Astrakhan(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Kirov(away) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Sokol Saratov(home) | 1-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Kaluga win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Mashuk-KMV win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV 1-1 Kaluga | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Kaluga 3-0 Mashuk-KMV | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV 1-1 Kaluga | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| May 11, 2024 | Kaluga 1-2 Mashuk-KMV | Second League A - Spring Season Silver |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Mashuk-KMV 0-1 Kaluga | Second League A - Spring Season Silver |
How many goals should we expect?
Kaluga score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mashuk-KMV score 1.2 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaluga | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Mashuk-KMV | 1.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kaluga sit 10th in Second League A - Division A Gold (3 points from 5 matches) and Mashuk-KMV sit 5th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mashuk-KMV | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kaluga vs Mashuk-KMV?
- The Footlab model makes Mashuk-KMV the favourite at 35%, against 34% for a draw and 31% for Kaluga.
- Where and when is Kaluga vs Mashuk-KMV played?
- Kaluga vs Mashuk-KMV is played on October 9, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Annenki, in the Second League A - Division A Gold.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.