Rostov II vs Lugansk: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 1Group 1 - 23Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Rostov II the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 8% for Lugansk. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rostov II vs Lugansk?
Rostov II starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,782 vs 1,612).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rostov II have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Lugansk have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Astrakhan(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Angust Nazran(home) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Spartak Nalchik(away) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Izberbash(home) | 5-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dynamo Makhachkala II(away) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pobeda(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Nalchik(home) | 2-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Angust Nazran(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dynamo Makhachkala II(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Izberbash(away) | 1-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Rostov II win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Lugansk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Lugansk 1-2 Rostov II | Second League - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Rostov II score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lugansk score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rostov II | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Lugansk | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rostov II sit 3rd in Second League - Group 1 (40 points from 19 matches) and Lugansk sit 11th (20 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rostov II | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 16 | 40 |
| 11 | Lugansk | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rostov II vs Lugansk?
- The Footlab model makes Rostov II the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 8% for Lugansk.
- Where and when is Rostov II vs Lugansk played?
- Rostov II vs Lugansk is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.