Rodina Moskva vs Rubin: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Arena Khimki, Khimki
The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Rubin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Rubin?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Rodina Moskva (1,906) and Rubin (1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rodina Moskva have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Rubin have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Akron(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 0-5 | Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Akron(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Rodina Moskva win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Rubin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rodina Moskva 5-0 Rubin | Cup |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Rubin 1-4 Rodina Moskva | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Rodina Moskva 0-0 Rubin | First League |
| Jul 17, 2022 | Rubin 2-0 Rodina Moskva | First League |
Last archived meeting: Rodina Moskva vs Rubin on Aug 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rodina Moskva score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rubin score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva | 1.6 | 1.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Rubin | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rodina Moskva sit 13th in Premier League (4 points from 5 matches) and Rubin sit 10th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rubin | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rodina Moskva vs Rubin?
- The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Rubin.
- Where and when is Rodina Moskva vs Rubin played?
- Rodina Moskva vs Rubin is played on September 16, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Arena Khimki, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.