Rudar Trbovlje vs Tolmin: prediction and stats
3. SNL - WestWest - 7Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rudar, Trbovlje
The Footlab model makes Rudar Trbovlje the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Tolmin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rudar Trbovlje vs Tolmin?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Rudar Trbovlje (1,498) and Tolmin (1,492).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rudar Trbovlje have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Tolmin have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Litija(away) | 2-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Šobec Lesce(home) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | Dren Vrhnika(home) | 1-4 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 16, 2026 | Dob(away) | 3-3 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 10, 2026 | Vipava(away) | 0-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Šencur(away) | 3-3 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dob(home) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | Žiri(away) | 3-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 16, 2026 | Vipava(home) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 9, 2026 | Zidgrad Idrija(home) | 3-0 | 3. SNL - West |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Rudar Trbovlje win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Tolmin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Tolmin 0-1 Rudar Trbovlje | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Rudar Trbovlje 4-1 Tolmin | 3. SNL - West |
Last archived meeting: Tolmin vs Rudar Trbovlje on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rudar Trbovlje score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tolmin score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudar Trbovlje | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Tolmin | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rudar Trbovlje sit 6th in 3. SNL - West (4 points from 2 matches) and Tolmin sit 8th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rudar Trbovlje | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Tolmin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rudar Trbovlje vs Tolmin?
- The Footlab model makes Rudar Trbovlje the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Tolmin.
- Where and when is Rudar Trbovlje vs Tolmin played?
- Rudar Trbovlje vs Tolmin is played on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rudar, in the 3. SNL - West.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.