Rukinzo vs Durban City: prediction and stats
CAF Confederation Cup1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Intwari, Bujumbura
The Footlab model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Durban City. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rukinzo vs Durban City?
Durban City starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,629).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rukinzo have 7 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeats; Durban City have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panthere Noir(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(home) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 4-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ngozi City(home) | 4-2 | Ligue A |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Inter Star(away) | 2-2 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Richards Bay(home) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orlando Pirates(away) | 1-2 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sekhukhune United(away) | 0-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| May 23, 2026 | Amazulu(home) | 0-1 | Premier Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Rukinzo score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Durban City score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rukinzo | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Durban City | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rukinzo vs Durban City?
- The Footlab model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Durban City.
- Where and when is Rukinzo vs Durban City played?
- Rukinzo vs Durban City is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Intwari, in the CAF Confederation Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.