Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 20, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Heart Health Park, Sacramento, California
The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for San Antonio. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Sacramento Republic (1,805) and San Antonio (1,740).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sacramento Republic have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; San Antonio have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lexington(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting JAX(home) | 5-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive(home) | 0-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Miami FC(home) | 2-1 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Louisville City(away) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Indy Eleven(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sacramento Republic win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 San Antonio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | San Antonio 2-1 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Aug 3, 2025 | San Antonio 1-3 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Sacramento Republic 0-0 San Antonio | USL Championship |
| Oct 6, 2024 | San Antonio 2-1 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Sacramento Republic 1-0 San Antonio | USL Championship |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Sacramento Republic 3-1 San Antonio | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: San Antonio vs Sacramento Republic on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sacramento Republic score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Antonio score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| San Antonio | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sacramento Republic sit 6th in USL Championship (16 points from 11 matches) and San Antonio sit 1st (21 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 5 | San Antonio | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio?
- The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for San Antonio.
- Where and when is Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio played?
- Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio is played on September 20, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Heart Health Park, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots