Where and when is Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama played?

Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama is played on August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, in the Emperor Cup.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama: prediction and stats

Emperor Cup2nd RoundKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu

Sagan Tosu

Kataller Toyama

The Footlab model makes Sagan Tosu the favourite at 61%, against 19% for a draw and 20% for Kataller Toyama. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama?

A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Sagan Tosu (1,824) and Kataller Toyama (1,813).

Sagan Tosu win61 %

Draw19 %

Kataller Toyama win20 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sagan Tosu have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Kataller Toyama have 10, 3 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sagan Tosu
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Tochigi City(home)	1-3	J2 League
Aug 16, 2026	Tokushima Vortis(away)	0-0	J2 League
Aug 8, 2026	Ventforet Kofu(home)	2-0	J2 League
Jul 20, 2026	Verspah Oita(home)	7-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Shonan Bellmare(home)	1-0	J2/J3 League

Kataller Toyama
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Imabari(home)	4-0	J2 League
Aug 15, 2026	Blaublitz Akita(away)	4-0	J2 League
Aug 8, 2026	Vanraure Hachinohe(away)	0-2	J2 League
Jun 6, 2026	Vegalta Sendai(away)	1-1	J2/J3 League
May 30, 2026	Tegevajaro Miyazaki(home)	1-0	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Sagan Tosu win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Kataller Toyama win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 9, 2025	Kataller Toyama 3-1 Sagan Tosu	J2 League
Mar 23, 2025	Sagan Tosu 1-0 Kataller Toyama	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Kataller Toyama vs Sagan Tosu on Nov 9, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Sagan Tosu score 1.8 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Kataller Toyama score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Sagan Tosu	1.8	0.8	8	7/15	5/15
Kataller Toyama	2.1	1.0	7	7/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama?: The Footlab model makes Sagan Tosu the favourite at 61%, against 19% for a draw and 20% for Kataller Toyama.
Where and when is Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama played?: Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama is played on August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, in the Emperor Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.