Salcedo vs Vega Real: prediction and stats
Liga MayorRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Salcedo the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Vega Real. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Salcedo vs Vega Real?
Salcedo starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,696 vs 1,531).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Salcedo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Vega Real have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Universidad O&M(home) | 3-1 | Liga Mayor |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cavalier(away) | 0-0 | CONCACAF Caribbean Club Championship |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Portmore United(away) | 2-1 | CONCACAF Caribbean Club Championship |
| May 24, 2026 | Cibao(away) | 1-2 | Liga Mayor |
| May 17, 2026 | Cibao(home) | 2-0 | Liga Mayor |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Moca(away) | 0-0 | Liga Mayor |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Salcedo(home) | 4-3 | Liga Mayor |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Delfines Del Este(home) | 0-2 | Liga Mayor |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Jarabacoa(home) | 3-0 | Liga Mayor |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Universidad O&M(away) | 1-0 | Liga Mayor |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Salcedo win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Vega Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | Vega Real 4-3 Salcedo | Liga Mayor |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Salcedo 1-0 Vega Real | Liga Mayor |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Vega Real 0-1 Salcedo | Copa LDF |
How many goals should we expect?
Salcedo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Vega Real score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salcedo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Vega Real | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vega Real | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Salcedo vs Vega Real?
- The Footlab model makes Salcedo the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Vega Real.
- Where and when is Salcedo vs Vega Real played?
- Salcedo vs Vega Real is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga Mayor.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.